One of the readers of the Freakonomics blog asked a question about 50/50 fundraisers. If you are unfamiliar, these are fundraisers where you buy raffle tickets and the organization keeps 50% of the money raised and gives away the other 50% to the winner of the raffle. Freakonomics reader Melissa Belvadi writes:

This strikes me as an incredibly bad deal, but a bit complicated to explain why, as it contains 2 components:

1. As a gamble: poor expected value. I am not sure how to calculate this, but from my experience in Las Vegas where slot machines boast being set to 97% return ratios, a gamle where 50% goes to the “house” seems unlikely to be a good EV.
2. As a charitable donation: poor “program ratio” - at most, 50% of my donation will go to the “program” (charitable cause) - this is considered a very poor ratio in the philanthropic world where typically 60% is the bare minimum acceptable - the BBB requires 65%

I completely agree with the above analysis. I think that 50-50 raffles are not great gambling or philanthropic decisions but they are obviously popular for a reason. To understand why I wonder if it helps to think about it from the perspective of the purchaser.

A person who purchases a lotto or traditional raffle ticket certainly hopes to win, but I don’t think there is any expectation that they will win. People might not be great with statistics but they understand that the odds are stacked against them. So win they think about their future they face two scenarios: the rare chance they win and become wealthy; the likely scenario though is that they will lose and be out their money.

In a 50-50 raffle the two outcomes are changed. There is still the rare chance that they will win but now if they lose they’ve still done something good with that money so it softens the blow some.

Does your organization do a 50-50 raffle? Do you participate in them? Tell me why or why not.